The ultra-inexpensive era of mortgage rates is coming to an end, and quickly. Mortgage rates have reached unprecedented 7-year highs. The average 30-year mortgage this week will cost consumers 4.7%, up nearly a full 1% from 2016.
While a 1% increase may not seem like the end of the world, it is important to realize the effect this may have over the course of a mortgage. Consider a consumer who purchased a home with a $200,000 mortgage in 2016. Assuming a 3.7% interest rate, this would amount to a principal and interest monthly payment of $921. In today’s environment, the same consumer may have a monthly payment of $1,037. Over the life of a conventional 30-year mortgage, today’s consumers may pay $41,760 more than those who locked in a rate in 2016.
Reviewing rates in today’s environment may leave some consumers discouraged. However, in comparison to many historical rates, today’s rates are actually relatively low. Take 1981, for example, when the average 30-year mortgage rate was 16.64%. Using a 16.64% interest rate, a $200,000 mortgage in 1981 would cost the consumer $2,793 per month, or, over the course of 30 years, $632,160 more than a consumer today.
For those looking to purchase a new home, the question remains: Is now a good time to buy? The answer is not so simple. There are a few factors to consider before determining if it’s the right time to buy for you.
First of all, as the economy improves overall, mortgage rates are likely to continue to increase. The culprit behind increased mortgage rates is actually surging wage growth. According to the Census and Bureau of Labor Statistics, average household income is at an all-time high, while mortgage rates have been laying low—until now. As wage growth continues to increase the money supply to consumers, consumer spending power increases. Unfortunately, increased consumer spending also increases demand for goods and will ultimately raise the price of goods–inflation.
With the expectation of rising inflation comes a steady increase in the yield of the 10-year Treasury note. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which usually affects the 30-year mortgage rate, has risen to its highest close since 2011, ending up at just over 3.1%.
In addition, the Federal Reserve has indicated that it will be raising short-term rates at least three to four times this year alone, and potentially several more times in the coming years.
Current home owners should also not expect to refinance anytime soon. As rates rise, the group of homeowners who would benefit from or be eligible for mortgage refinancing has decreased drastically by 46% this year, according to Black Knight Inc.—the smallest group since 2008.
But with mortgage rates trending upward and no sign of lowering again in sight, many people are choosing to strike while they still have the chance.
Overall, your decision depends on if you want to wait it out and hope that mortgages rates will decrease again, or if you want to buy now while the rates are still relatively low, even with the 1% jump. One effective tip to help counteract for the increase in mortgage rates is to lower your price range accordingly and look for a house priced lower than what you would have pursued had mortgage rates remained at their lowest point.
Of course, there are many other factors besides mortgage rates which may affect a consumer’s decision to purchase a home. For example, economic factors such as rising rents, home appreciation, and predictable monthly housing payments.
Bottom line: Rising rates are expected to continue for some time, so it is important to weigh all factors at play and make the decision that’s right for you today and in the future.